DEC 3, 2023
Hello skiers and snowboarders:
It was a good start to the ski season with the recent one to two feet of new snow. But we still need more for more areas and terrain to open. The snow level bumped up early today to 5,000ft.
Part two of this storm series is coming with a new and very wet storm. Right now, snow fall is tapering off, as the snow level rises (5,000 ft) in the Cascades. We will start the week with a respectable atmospheric river storm coming up to the plate on Monday. That means mild and wet.
The news...expect rain in the Cascades – five to ten inches for Monday and Tuesday – that is a lot! Ouch. It will be tough on the snowpack with heavy rain falling on snow.
The good news is the snow level will fall by mid-week with new snowfall, creating a new layer fresh quality snow on the damaged, but consolidated snowpack. That late week comeback will cover some of our early season snow troubles. Redemption of sorts. Early season snow patterns in the NW are often that way.
The rain won’t completely wipe out the snowpack. But there will be significant impacts on our new snow. Here’s what will happen.
There is deeper snow (> 2-3ft, mid and upper slopes) as the heavy rain melts some snow, but also infiltrates the snowpack creating a dense snow base layer for the season ahead, which can be helpful. The upper elevation snowpack is fragile, but not as vulnerable as the lower slopes. The greater impacts are on the lower elevation snowpack. Heavy rain will really thin out the snow down low. That will hurt.
The rivers will run high by later Monday and Tuesday with flooding. River runoff from heavy rain on snow is caused mainly from the heavy rain, but 10-20% of the elevated river flow is because of the snowmelt contribution. Snowmelt as the main driver of winter floods is a myth - it's always the rain, but snowmelt does contribute. Strong, moist winds with the higher snow levels can make the melt more efficient – and that is what we expect.
Don’t forget, join me for a free Zoom meeting this Wednesday evening. See the information below. I’ll have an updated forecast, plus an answer to your weather questions.
A few ski areas opened this weekend, all with new snow, including our wonderful sponsors 49 Degrees and Silver Mountain. Note, some NW ski areas will close or partially close this week, some have not opened yet. Always check ski area websites before going for the latest mountains conditions.
Be careful, early season conditions exist.
Grand Poobah of Powder
larry schick - meteorologist
On Wed, Dec 6th, 6:30-7:30 I'll be doing a Zoom presentation. Email your questions in advance or watch and ask live.
