From Larry Schick, the Grand Poobah of Powder (GPOP)
REPLAY HIGHLIGHTS: "La Niña means good powder for the Northwest and a much better weather pattern."
Larry mentioned several weather links, those are at the end of this post.
"We’re getting going here in October—a tad early—but hey, it’s never too early to get psyched about some snow in the mountains, right? Let’s get started with what’s on everyone’s mind: the snow forecast for the upcoming 2024-2025 ski season in the Pacific Northwest."
CLICK THE IMAGE for the entire replay on YouTube.
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Below is a recap. For the entire transcript click here for the YouTube link.
"First, let’s get this out of the way: this isn’t going to be a repeat of last year’s El Niño. Nope. This year we’re looking at La Niña, and if you’ve been around for a while, you know what that means—good powder days are ahead, folks! La Niña usually favors the Northwest with a much better weather pattern for skiers and boarders. We’re talking about cold air, abundant snowfall, and less of the rain we all love to hate.
Early Season Expectations"Let’s talk short term for a moment. The next week or so? Not much to get excited about. We’ve got some high pressure moving in, and while a few sprinkles may pop up, the atmosphere isn’t feeling quite like winter just yet. But don’t worry—mid to late October is when the action usually starts. That’s when the models show signs of a storm cycle that could bring us our first mountain snow. Will it stick? Probably not much in October, but hey, it’s a start!
The good news is that we’re not seeing any blocking high-pressure patterns right now. You know, those nasty systems that park themselves over us and ruin the snow chances? None of that so far. Things are moving along, and that’s a good sign for a healthy winter.
Why We Have Weather (Yes, Seriously!)Okay, class is in session for a minute here. Ever wonder why we even have weather? It’s because the sun heats the Earth unevenly—from the poles to the equator—and that difference in temperature creates the weather patterns we love (or hate). The cold air moves south, the warm air heads north, and somewhere in between is where the action happens. The waves in the atmosphere that push cold air down and warm air up are called Rossby waves, and these bad boys are what cause our storm cycles.
That’s why sometimes it’ll snow for a week straight, and then nothing for a while. It’s all about how these waves move. If you see a big ridge off the coast of British Columbia, expect fair weather. But when the cold air starts pushing in from the north—well, that’s when we get the goods.
La Niña vs. El Niño: Who Wins?
Last year’s snow was hit or miss, and while we had some good days (yes, cherry-picking required), overall, it wasn’t a banner year. Snowfall was below normal in many areas.
This year, though, it’s all about La Niña. And La Niña? She’s much kinder to the Northwest. We’re expecting near-to-above-normal snowfall, and Whistler’s already planning to open on the 22nd of November, which is a great sign. Other areas are shooting for a Thanksgiving opening, and while snowmaking will play a part, La Niña is already setting up the potential for a good season.
But Don’t Get Too Excited… YetNow, before you go booking your ski vacation, let me give you a little warning: seasonal snow forecasts aren’t perfect. La Niña gives us a better chance for cold temps and abundant snow, but it doesn’t mean we won’t get a few warm storms along the way. November is our wettest month, and the snow levels can fluctuate a lot, so we’ll have to watch that closely.
And remember, the snow doesn’t fall evenly throughout the season. We might get a huge dump one week, and then it’ll go quiet for a couple of weeks. Don’t get discouraged if there’s a dry spell—storm cycles change. One month doesn’t telegraph what’s going to happen the next, and that cuts both ways. If we get a super snowy December, it doesn’t mean the rest of the winter will follow suit. But with La Niña in our corner, we’re confident there will be more good days than bad.
Best Planning Tips for the SeasonIf you’re thinking about early-season skiing, my advice is to be patient. Don’t book your trip until you see snow on the ground. The best spots for early-season skiing in La Niña years tend to be Whistler, Grand Targhee, and Sun Valley. They’ve got a good combo of natural snow and snowmaking to get things going early.
Now, if you’re the flexible type and can hit the slopes at a moment’s notice, keep an eye on the short-range forecasts—those within five days are usually pretty accurate. The HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) model is great for skiers. It updates every hour and only goes out to 18 hours, but it’s perfect for making last-minute calls on where to ski."
....The full transcript is with the YouTube video.
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